The Difference Maker in week 1
Week 1, Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
I have to hand it to the NFL, they did not give out a whole lot of easy openings this season. It’s not like college football where Alabama plays San Jose St in a glorified scrimmage. This game in particular is going to be an epic slugfest between two potential playoff teams. It’s going to be all about defense, a true old fashioned punch in the face kind of game.
This game should come with some kind of disclaimer like, “If you’re a fan of offense then you’ve come to the wrong place.” The Ravens and Jets both play very similar and stout defense, both have good young running backs, neither has an explosive receiving corps, and only one has a Quarterback that will make a difference.
The Ravens and Jets both made the playoffs last season but only one really deserved to be there. The Jets’ final 2 opponents rolled over and played their backups last season and the Jets snuck in. The Jets did not do much to upgrade their team. They are again going to rely on their stout defense and on their QB Mark Sanchez making improvements in his 2nd season. The problem is, Sanchez really stunk last season so a large improvement would still only make him average. Sadly, judging by his preseason games he looks exactly the same as last season.
The difference maker in this game will be Joe Flacco. He has proven he can make plays without much talent around him. This offseason the Ravens went out and got him Anquan Boldin to be his new #1 receiver, but he is not exactly a flashy deep threat so it’s going to be more of the same run first, controlled offense from the Ravens.3rd down conversions are going to be huge like they are in any game, and Flacco often finds ways to come through.
This is going to be a very close game that will come down to the wire and the Ravens are going to come out on top. Ray Rice and Shonn Greene are excellent running backs, but it will come down to one quarterback needing to make a few plays toward the end, and Mark Sanchez is not in the same class as Flacco.
20-17 Ravens is my prediction.
Coaches, The Ultimate Source for Entertainment
Today is the final round of games in the NFL Preseason. If you like to see backups fighting their way onto a team by playing bad team football, it is a perfect day for you. I do have to say, this preseason has been better than most thanks to all the coach/player drama going on. I think my favorite part of the game of Football is to trash is Coaches. How can you not love seeing Josh McDaniels destroy the Broncos in such an epic fashion, unless of course you are a Broncos fan. Players get a lot of flack for being cocky, arrogant SOB’s but I don’t think they have anything on their coaches. Here is a look at some coaching issues going on now and the possible consequences.
We’ll start with the one getting the most headlines, Matt Leinart vs Derek Anderson for starting QB of the Cardinals. Ever since Coach Ken Whisenhunt took over the Cardinals he has done his best to bury a large knife in Leinart’s back. I’m not even a Leinart fan, but the way he’s been humiliated by his Coach reminds me of the things the cops did to screw with the kids doing drugs in Supertroopers. People that say Leinart can’t throw downfield are forgetting that Anderson can’t hit a receiver 5 feet in front of him to save his life. At least Leinart could give you an offense with a safe passing game and solid running game. With Anderson you can do everything to block the run and dare the Cards to pass because you want Anderson to throw the ball. He plays the position like he’s a blindfolded kangaroo driving a car.
I hope Leinart gets traded. Not so he can succeed because I highly doubt that will ever happen, but because I want to see Whisenhunt humiliated the same way he’s humiliated Leinart. If Anderson starts he’ll suck like a Nuclear Powered Vacuum Cleaner and so will the Cards. Their backup position would be hopeless with Leinart gone so I think there will be Karma running wild in Arizona.
Next is in Washington where Coach Mike “Diva” Shanahan is taking on the Grand Daddy Diva Albert Haynseworth. Shanahan has always pissed me off in a big way because I always felt like his arrogance after Elway cost the Broncos a lot of games. Going with Brian Griese and then Jake Plummer as his QB’s were his way of saying, “I can win with anyone. Elway didn’t win these rings, I did.” He was able to get away with that mentality in the regular season, but Plummer turned into the steaming pile of crap he was every time they reached the playoffs.
Now Shanahan shows up in Washington to coach the Redskins and does the exact same thing McDaniels did when Josh took over the Broncos. He went out of his way to assert his control of the team and in the process alienated Haynesworth. The Redskins defense has to have Albert playing well to be a true contender. All it would have taken was a little communication from both sides to make that happen. Instead, Albert and Mike tried to out Diva each other and now there is hatred flying everywhere. The funny thing is, since Shanahan has won 2 Super Bowls and McDaniels none they are viewed very differently when in fact they are exactly the same.
Last of all for today is Mike Martz. Mike is an easy target so I’ll keep it short. Mike put together the most exciting offense football has ever seen with the Rams in the late 90’s and early 2000’s. Unfortunately the league caught up to Martz and his high flying schemes. Instead of tweaking anything, Martz ran that Rams offense into the ground, then ran the Lions offense into the ground, and finally ran the 49ers offense into the ground. This season he’s the offensive coordinator of the Bears who have very little talent in their receiving corps. What on earth were the Bears thinking hiring this guy? It’s kind of like if firefighters tried to fight a fire by lighting an even bigger fire. Not smart. I can’t wait to see this train wreck unfold. Jay Cutler is going to get killed this year and no one is going to shed a tear because he’s so arrogant he’s a future coach in the making.
So I am extremely excited about this upcoming season and I hope you are too. Any time Mike Martz runs an offense there is the possibility that someone can actually get decapitated and that gives football a Roman Gladiator type feel. I also can’t wait to see the Browns fail because the combined arrogance of Mike Holmgren and Eric Mangini could power all of Russia in the dead of winter for months. I love coaches because they never admit when they’re wrong and they never change. They want to rule the world and that is why I love them. As Al Pacino said in “The Devil’s Advocate”, “Vanity. Definitely my favorite sin.” Nobody does Vanity like NFL coaches.
Matt Lubisich
The End is Here
Hope is a 4 letter word. It exists to punish people like me who root for the Giants every year with the Hope that this year will be different. Going into this season, I hoped Lincecum hadn’t wasted his best 2 seasons chasing Cy Youngs that were meaningless. I hoped that Brian Sabean had learned his mistakes about putting teams together that couldn’t get on base and score runs. And I had Hoped that the Giants would have been smart enough to utilize the good young talent it had instead of letting it linger in the Minor Leagues until it was too late. But like every season since 1954 this one will end the same way, with all of us Giants fans laying in the fetal position wondering why we couldn’t just be Yankee fans.
The good news is the writing was on the wall for the objective fan all year. I had written before how the Giants pitching staff couldn’t possibly pitch as well as it had last year and how the offense would still stink. When you combine those 2 factors you get a team even worse than the one that missed the playoffs last year. What hurts about this season is that it didn’t have to be that way. There were better options in the minors at the start of the season, in the middle of the season, and even now as the team implodes near the finish line.
We knew the Giants were giving away games starting with game 1 when Buster Posey was sent to Fresno. Starting catcher Bengie Molina sucked. There is no other way to put it. He was an offensive vacuum that refused to hit and refused to condition himself. The sad thing is he hadn’t changed in his whole career. His stats have always been awful, but he had a lot of RBI so he was awesome in the eyes of Giants’ management. The only thing is, the Giants might be the only organization left that actually thinks RBI are a bona fide measuring stick for hitters. Driving in runs is completely dependent on your teammates and has very little to do with the actual hitter. More on that later. But the year started with a terrible offense and great pitching staff and a true Hitting Machine in Buster Posey waiting in AAA Fresno for the first 2 painful months of the season.
Posey’s 2010 stats
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
79 299 40 98 18 2 10 50 18 41 0 1 .328 .370 .502 .872
Molina’s 2010 stats
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
99 324 26 79 10 1 5 30 22 31 0 0 .244 .293 .327 .620
Here is a side by side comparison of the two players this season. The Giants waited 2 months to make a change. That is 60 games of terrible production for a team that could not afford to give away any games all year because there was no margin for error. The Giants are currently 5 games out of 1st place and 2.5 games out of the wild card. That is a difference that could have been made up had the Giants played the best man from game 1 instead of game 61 at catcher.
The next decision that killed the Giants was the decision to leave Madison Bumgarner in AAA Fresno until an injury forced the Giants to play the better man. Todd Wellemeyer was given the 5th spot of the pitching rotation to start the year, and it took him all of 3 starts to show that he was the wrong answer. It was truly a strange season as he just could not pitch on the road. The Giants had a guy that was terrible in every single Road Start he had. That meant the Giants intentionally lost every game he pitched on the road which is half of his starts. That is unacceptable. The only thing that forced him out of the rotation was an injury. That is scary. That means the organization was planning on losing all 16 games he would have pitched without putting up a fight. Instead he got hurt and they got lucky and only “punted” 6 games. Had half of those games been won the Giants would be in position to make the playoffs.
Here are Wellemeyer’s stats versus the guy that replaced him who should have been called up at some point in May…
Todd Wellemeyer 2010
G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Total 13 11 3 5 58.2 57 37 37 12 35 41 5.68 1.57 .259
Madison Bumgarner 2010
G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Total 12 12 5 4 73.0 83 35 32 10 19 52 3.95 1.40 .285
The difference between the two is pretty substantial now, and that is badly skewed by Bumgarner’s last start when he got lit up for 7 runs in 2.2 innings. Once again, it took an Injury to finally force the Giants to make a change. That is incompetence at the highest level.
So it took 2 months to bring up a difference maker on Offense, 3 months to bring up a difference maker in the pitching staff, and 4 months before Sabean would rear his ugly head yet again by making a few moves that would further put cement shoes on the Giants’ season. The moves in question were the acquisitions of Jose Guillen and Cody Ross because every team just has to have 7 guys to play three outfield positions. Ross and Guillen offered nothing to the team that they didn’t already have. Both are Right Handed hitting hackers with below average power and one can’t even run while he’s being played in one of the biggest stadiums in the game. The Giants already had Rowand and Shierholtz that fit the role of guys that can’t hit and won’t walk so the desire to go get 2 more of that model is just baffling.
Sadly Brian Sabean is so stupid that it’s easy to see why he got Guillen. It’s because Guillen drove in 62 runs while he was with the Royals, and to Sabean that is a lot. So he ignored the fact that Guillen was a terrible hitter that only drove in runs because he hit in the middle of the Royals’ lineup. Hmmmm, sounds exactly like Bengie Molina doesn’t it? That is because Sabean has no idea how to evaluate hitters, which is the reason the Giants’ offense has been missing in action since 2003. He was actually so bad that he hurt the Royals because a more competent hitter would have done better. If he’s so bad a last place team doesn’t want him then how on earth can he help a playoff team?
What makes the decision to get Guillen and Ross and continue to play below average players an even worse decision has been the emergence of prospect Brandon Belt. I’ve included Guillen’s, Ross’s and Belt’s stats below, there is just a slight difference in production… that was being sarcastic.
Guillen G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 119 439 49 117 18 2 17 67 29 93 1 0 .267 .323 .433 .756
Ross G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 125 467 64 124 24 3 11 60 30 105 9 1 .266 .314 .400 .715
Belt G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 129 467 96 167 40 10 21 107 86 91 22 8 .358 .458 .621 1.079
So there it is. Belt is better in every single category by a wide margin and yet the Giants could not trust him. Just like with Posey and Bumgarner earlier in the season, the Giants would rather play known mediocrities than take a chance on guys that could actually make a real difference. The “funny” thing about these decisions is that Molina did not lose his job despite sucking and neither did Wellemeyer. Neither were ever benched. Molina got to kill the team for 2 months before he was traded, and Wellemeyer got to cost the team a win with every road start he made before he was injured. And now Belt is stuck in the minors while the team finishes another unsuccessful season simply because Brian Sabean does not trust young athletes, especially hitters. A plague of locusts wiping out the entire outfield will be the only thing that can get Belt to the Majors this season unless the Giants are out of contention.
Successful teams that are serious about winning always play their best athletes and don’t lose with their best horses waiting in the stable. The Giants believe in appearances and proven veteran talent. They believe that if you bring up an unproven guy the world just might end. They are a team that does not believe in taking chances because they think that will make them look bad if they’re wrong. The thing is, they would at least be respected if they tried instead of standing pat while everything blows up around them. It’s a logic that is easy to understand, but is frustrating as all hell to be around. For years the Giants gave away draft picks to acquire people that had no business being on the field, Michael Tucker anyone?, just so they wouldn’t have to take the risk of actually drafting someone who might fail. They would rather have guys that they know will suck instead of taking a risk on someone that might suck or might become the next guy that can actually make a difference in a positive way.
So with a month to go I have officially given up. The Giants need to win at least 21 games in the final month to make the playoffs and there is no hope. The pitching staff is awful at the moment, thanks largely to Tim Lincecum not caring this season since he isn’t playing for a contract. The offense is also terrible most of the time which was ok last season because the pitching staff pitched over their head statistically. But this season the staff just could not pick up the offense as often as it had before. So I will look ahead to next year fully knowing that very little will change. Sabean will find a way to send Brandon Belt back to the minor leagues, Buster Posey will be the lone ranger on offense and the pitching staff will have to carry the load yet again. The Giants will not win until they get a real offense, and Barry Bonds was the only thing that ever gave Sabean in real offense in his whole tenure as the Giants General Manager. Because of that, there is no real hope for the Giants until they finally rid themselves of Brian Sabean and his Anti-Offense mentality.
Matt Lubisich
No Repeat in Who Dat Nation
Finally, Football season is upon us. It’s that magical time of year when there is actually something to watch on Sundays instead of wanting to shoot yourself while your wife watches HGTV. Seriously, no one cares what color you paint your freakin laundry room. Finally we can all give the NCIS marathons a break because it’s scary when you watch the show so much you actually start to have dreams that you are one of the characters. The only thing that would make Football season even better would be if the Vampires from Twilight got suited up and got their asses kicked on National Television in all their glittery glory.
The start of the NFL season always brings about a lot of predictions for what will happen in the upcoming season. I’m not a psychic by any means, but this past season I predicted that Favre would talk retirement and come back, the sun would continue to rise in the east, and death and taxes would continue to be constant. So because of those accurate predictions, I believe I am just as qualified as the idiots on ESPN to predict what will happen this upcoming season.
Here are 7 predictions, 1 for each Harry Potter book…
1. The Saints will not repeat as Champions. It’s too hard to come back and repeat without a little video help, I’m looking at you Patriots, and letdowns are all too common. Besides, it took a terrible throw by Favre to get them into the big game, and a successful onside kick and bad throw by Manning to win the Super Bowl.
2. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl. Brady was pretty awesome 1 year removed from his injury so I think he is going to tear the league to shreds this season.
3. Brett Favre is going to wish he had retired before this season. The league is going to make him look like the Grandpa he is. It’s not going to help him with Rice hurt and Taylor gone as the 2nd RB.
4. The Lions will win 6 games and Stafford is going to be a Fantasy Football Beast. Simply put, The Kracken will be released in Detroit this season.
5. A 7-9 record by the 49ers will win the NFC West. The West stinks like a road kill skunk on a hot day. Enough said.
6. This season, Jay Cutler is going to spend more time on his back than Kim Kardashian. It’s going to be a season long sack-a-thon in Chicago and I give him 8 games before he gets hurt.
7. Peyton Manning is going to have a massive regular season and choke in the playoffs again. This can be put up there in the death and taxes category. It’s just the way Peyton rolls.
To wrap it up, here are a few more obvious ones just for fun, the Raiders will suck, Ochocinco and T.O. are not going to get along, Chilly is going to get fired in Minnesota because Favre will command it, Romo will continue to act like an elite QB and will continue to not back it up in the playoffs and LeGarrette Blount is going to punch someone in the face.
So good luck to everyone with their Fantasy teams and good luck to Matt Ryan. You’re my boy Matty, you’re my boy.
Matt Lubisich
A Football Team is only as good as their Kicker
That line sounds crazy doesn’t it? Kickers are the laughingstock of the NFL. No one regards them as real athletes and they are only accepted by their teammates if they win games. If a receiver drops a big potential touchdown pass he still has friends on the bench that talk to him. If a kicker misses a big field goal he’s treated like someone that has the Plague so it’s not even safe to breathe around him.
When people discuss the greatest players of the game there are names like Montana and Bradshaw that are immediately thrown out there. Guys with 3 or more Super Bowl wins always are at the top of the list. Tom Brady has gotten his name on the list with 3 Super Bowl wins, but if you look at the games he won, the scores were 20-17, 32-29 and 24-21. All the games were won by field goals, 2 in the last seconds of the games and 1 in the last 2 minutes.
Two guys that are always on the Bridesmaid list, guys that were really good but never won a Super Bowl, are former Bills QB Jim Kelly and former Bills RB Thurman Thomas. The thing is, they lost the 1991 Super Bowl 20-19 when Scott Norwood missed wide right on a field goal in the closing seconds of the game. So the difference between being good and being great for Kelly and Thomas was decided by the leg of their kicker. The Bills went on to lose the next 3 Super Bowls as well, but with the way Athletes are mentally affected by things I would not be surprised if they had won some of those games had they won that first Super Bowl.
In total, 6 of the 44 Super Bowls played have been decided by 3 points or less. But if you expand your view to other playoff games, you’ll remember the 1998 season when the Minnesota Vikings were an offensive juggernaut run by Randall Cunningham and a young guy named Randy Moss. They could not be stopped all season and in the NFC Championship game they just needed a Field Goal by Gary Anderson to win the game and go on to the Super Bowl. Anderson had not missed a Field Goal or Extra Point all season, but he missed that Field Goal, the Falcons beat the Vikings, and the Falcons got their asses handed to them by Elway and the Broncos because they were totally over matched in the Super Bowl. We’ll never know what would have happened had it been the Vikings instead, but I think we can all agree that the Vikings would have at least made the Broncos sweat a little in that game and would not have had their star defensive player get arrested for soliciting an undercover Police Officer for sex the night before the game.
Peyton Manning has also fallen victim to having a kicker that could not come through in a big spot. In 2005 the Colts were possibly the best team in the NFL, but lost 21-18 to the Steelers in the playoffs. All they needed was a Field Goal from Mike Vanderjagt who was the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL when he made his attempt. But he missed, the Colts lost, and Peyton Manning still only has 1 Super Bowl to his name and that season he and the Colts were on a roll before their kicker stopped them in their tracks.
Here is one final example, but it’s the flipside to what happened to Manning. Last season the Saints and Vikings played in the NFC Championship game. After Brett Favre threw his fateful interception that forced the game into Overtime, the Saints got a Field Goal from Garrett Hartley who had played in all of 13 regular season games and 1 playoff game before making the Game Winning Field Goal against the Vikings to get the Saints to the Super Bowl. Where Anderson and Vanderjagt, 2 veteran, accurate and proven kickers failed, Hartley succeeded. That is why games aren’t played on paper.
I have always thought it was a bit ridiculous stating Montana was the best ever because of the Super Bowls, or that Marino wasn’t one of the best because he never won one. Both of them were great because they had incredible poise and talent. Winning Super Bowls takes a mixture of talent, momentum, team health and a whole lot of luck. Yes Luck, the other 4 letter word. It’s ridiculous making winning Super Bowls a pre-requisite to being a great player because football is a team sport. 1 athlete does not control his own destiny. Montana could have 2 less Super Bowls if Jerry Rice didn’t catch every pass thrown his way. Brady would have zero Super Bowls without his Kicker Adam Vinatieri. Brees wouldn’t have one without Hartley and also without Favre and Manning throwing huge interceptions to pave the way for him. And Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and all the other Bills wouldn’t have been the biggest bridesmaids in the history of Football if it wasn’t for Scott Norwood. So next time, before you bash a kicker, remember that he just might be the hero you need for your team to go all the way.
